Welcome to Active Measures.
Russia is testing the West, with crackdowns on dissidents, divide-and-rule diplomatic gambits, military stunts in the Arctic and sabre-rattling in Ukraine. Not to mention its cyber-attacks and political warfare directed at the heart of Western democracies.
The United States is reacting. An intelligence review of recent Russian misdeeds will set the stage for imminent new sanctions and other measures.
The EU is not reacting. That’s dangerous. It encourages Putin to think he can get away with mayhem, mischief and murder. And it divides the Atlantic Alliance, making life safer and nicer for dictators everywhere.
The EU sometimes talks tough. But its deeds don’t match its words. It imposed only token measures in response to the Kremlin’s ostentatiously awful treatment of Alexei Navalny (now on hunger strike).
Germany is the big culprit. It should stop the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline immediately and demand some big concessions from Russia before letting work restart. Remember: this pipeline doesn’t just export gas, it also pumps corruption into the heart of the German system. And it weakens Ukraine. Russia taunts Germany, with an assassination happening barely a stone’s throw from the Bundestag, and hacking of the computers inside it. But Germany doesn’t respond.
France is behaving badly too. Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel phoned Putin to ask for shipments of Russia’s dodgy Sputnik-V vaccine (take-up in Russia is low). That undermined still further the (admittedly feeble) EU stance. It showed Putin that when push comes to shove, EU countries’ national interests come first. A united European front is (would be) a big deal: 450m people and a €15 trillion ($18 trillion) GDP. That used to scare Putin. Now, not so much. In any bilateral negotiation, Russia has a lot of clout.
Adding insult to injury, France and Germany talked (ie negotiated) with Russia about Ukraine, without Ukrainians present. That encourages Putin to keep up the military pressure in Ukraine’s east. France and Germany urged “both sides” to de-escalate — as if Ukraine were planning to attack Russia. Shameful.
All this goes down well in Moscow and badly in Washington. The new US administration genuinely wants to revive the Atlantic Alliance. The bargain is simple, attractive and workable. The US offers Europe military help against Russia, and gets economic help against China in return. But without France and Germany, that won’t work. I’m worried. American patience may snap. So may other things.
What I’ve been writing: Please take a look if you haven’t already at the weekly China Influence Monitor (produced by CEPA and Coda Story). It’s pithy, snarky and unlike anything else you’ll read on this subject. Let me know what you think of it.
I wrote a short comment piece for the (London) Times on the crackdown in Hong Kong. It’s not just the protestors who are on trial. Britain’s credibility is, too.
My weekly CEPA column was on Western business and China: Western businesses like platitudes such as “we don’t get involved in politics.” But if you are doing business with China, politics gets involved in you.
That’s it for now (sorry about the delay — I’ve been dealing with a family illness).
I’ll be back in your inboxes next week
Best regards, Edward