Welcome to this week’s Active Measures.
This week’s row over the HMS Defender was partly between Britain and Russia. The Kremlin won, because the takeaways in most world media were that:
1) Britain provoked Russia.
2) Britain was on its own — no other NATO navies, and in particular no U.S. Navy vessel, tried to sail through Crimean waters.
3) Russia showed that it was a tough country ready to defend itself.
None of this is true.
The British ship was doing nothing provocative. (Russian warships also make “innocent passage” through British waters when they sail through the English Channel.)
American warships have done similar things in the Black Sea in the past.
Russia’s sabre-rattling was just for show — nobody fired anything anywhere near the British ship.
But the damage is done.
Any post-mortem should look at the messaging. The lack of support from NATO and allies was deafening. Britain should have pre-cooked supportive statements from other governments and HQs. The defence ministry press office in London tried to play the incident down — which was crazy given that there were two ace correspondents on board HMS Defender, who filed lurid (sorry, “lively”) accounts of the Russians’ behaviour.
Takeaway: if you are going to do something that is likely to prompt a media storm, make sure you are lavishly and meticulously prepared for it. Britain wasn’t. Next time may be worse (see below).
However there is another dimension to the conflict: between Ben Wallace, Britain’s defence secretary, and the spineless Foreign Office (or FCDO for short). Did you see foreign secretary Dominic Raab criticise Russia’s behaviour? No, I didn’t either. Raab’s diplomats don’t want the brass hats dragging them into a row with Russia. Boris Johnson backed Wallace over the HMS Defender. Raab’s looking wobbly. Wallace would like his job.
Next up: what will Britain’s navy do in the South China Sea? Our aircraft carrier and accompanying vessels are heading there fast, direct from the current deployment from the eastern Mediterranean (monsoon season makes port visits pointless — they will feature on the return leg).
The big question is whether a British ship (or two) will make a passage through the Taiwan straits. That would delight the Americans and infuriate the mainland Chinese. The trick will be to find a reason why this is the shortest route between two points. The trip that makes most sense would be from South Korea to Vietnam, where Cam Ranh Bay would be perfect.
I reckon this will happen. If so, here’s a checklist for the British government:
Ensure that defence ministry, foreign office, embassy in Beijing, etc are all prepped and ready.
Be lawyered up — ensure everyone knows that UNCLOS (UN convention on the law of the sea) says this is OK.
Pre-empt Chinese protests by getting your story into the world media first.
Ensure that lots of journalists are on board whatever vessel(s) are sent.
Get ready to summon Chinese ambassador to London before our woman in Beijing (the estimable Caroline Wilson) is hauled in for a dressing down.
Ensure the U.S. government — all bits of it — the Australians, the Canadians and the Japanese are all ready to issue statements in support before, during and after any rumpus.
Arrange for other countries’ warships to be doing the same thing at roughly the same time so that Britain doesn’t look isolated.
The key thing is that as with the Black Sea episode, the UK has the initiative here. If the Brits end up looking unprepared, they have nobody to blame but themselves.
What I’ve been doing:
Editing the China Influence Monitor, a weekly look at the party-state’s mischief and meddling. Sign up here.
Writing for the Daily Mail about the shenanigans in the Black Sea.
My Times column (longer than usual) was on Taiwan — not ready for primetime, as I have argued in this newsletter.
My CEPA column was on how to mark the Chinese Communist Party’s centenary (try ensure that there are not many more such anniversaries).
What I’ve been reading:
Balint Magyar’s savagely critical book on Hungary.
This informative but often annoying book on the Chinese Communist Party, dripping with excuses and moral equivalence.
This rather interesting but sometimes silly book about learning Chinese.
I’ll be back in your inboxes next week.
Best regards,
Edward