Well-informed people I’ve been meeting this week think that it’s realistic for Ukraine to retake Kherson by Christmas. Russian troops on the right-hand (western) side of the Dnieper are now stuck “in a box”. Ukrainian strikes hamper their supply lines, and their retreat.
Two big questions arise.
Will a humiliating defeat, perhaps involving the surrender of thousands of Russian troops, change Putin’s plans? He could start negotiating, or escalate.
What will Ukraine do next?
Answers below.