Welcome to Active Measures.
The Chinese Communist Party’s splenetic, bullying behaviour has done more in a week than people like me have managed in the past year. Thanks, comrades.
The EU, Britain and other Western countries used to worry about how to choose between China and the US: now Beijing’s making the choice for them. The ludicrous over-reaction to last week’s pinprick sanctions is driving even lily-livered Europeans into the US-led global coalition to constrain the party-state’s mischief and bullying.
An immediate casualty is the EU-China investment deal, in big trouble in the European Parliament and elsewhere. Other efforts, such as the D-10 group of democracies, have wind in their sails. This summer’s G-7 summit in Britain will be the most significant for years. China-huggers still hope things will calm down eventually. They have a long wait: China is no longer interested in being polite or friendly — and has misread the way free countries react to pressure. That’s a bad combination.
As democracies huddle, the rest of the world is still mostly uninterested. At the Beijing show-trial of the jailed Canadian Michael Kovrig, 26 countries sent diplomats to show support. Not one was from Africa, Latin America or Asia: even arch-hawks Japan and India stayed away.
That’s troubling. The Iraq war, the financial crisis, Trump’s presidency and the botched response to the pandemic have all helped shatter the authoritative Western leadership that we took for granted in the 1990s. Biden has a long row to hoe to restore the multilateral world that maximises US power. American values still appeal to some countries, US security guarantees to others. But both are frayed. .
Another worry: Chinese-Russian ties are strengthening. Sanctions-dodging is the immediate goal. China will also take at least symbolic part in the Zapad-21 military exercises in Belarus in the autumn. That will make headlines.
China’s own activities in the CEE region are worth watching. Defence minister Wei Fenghe just visited Budapest . Next stops: Serbia, Greece and North Macedonia. What’s he up to? I’ll let you know as soon as I find out. High on China’s agenda is finding a host for next year’s 17+1 summit. Make that 16+1 and counting, downwards — Lithuania’s privately said it’s pulling out, and other countries will follow.
I’ve been working on two big CEPA reports on Sino-Russian ties. Two often-neglected points stand out. First: there is no Moscow-Beijing alliance here: it’s ruthless power politics, opportunistic and self-interested. Second, both countries succeed abroad chiefly because of Western failures.
What I’ve been doing: talking to CNN about the spy bust in Bulgaria and to Latvian TV about China. Also moderating CEPA panels on Chinese digital influence, info-ops and economic diplomacy. Two more, on Sino-Russian info ops and Chinese political-military activities are upcoming. And I’m plugging away on Nordic-Baltic security, which looks more worrying the more I research it.
What I’ve been writing: The China Influence Monitor, a weekly co-production by CEPA and Coda Story, is doing really well, with snarky, pithy takes on the party-state’s western footprint. Read it (and subscribe) here. My CEPA column this week was about China’s technological edge: “Science fiction may be a better guide than strategy textbooks.”
I’ll be back in your inboxes next week.
Best regards, Edward