Welcome to this week’s Active Measures.
Two of biggest headaches for Western security planners are a clash over Taiwan and a renewed Russian attack on Ukraine. Now both are looming simultaneously.
Coincidence? I don’t think so.
China’s air incursions aim to exhaust and intimidate Taiwan. Last week it sent 20 warplanes, including four nuclear-capable H-6K bombers and 10 J-16 fighter jets, into the island state’s air-defence identification zone. Next it sent bombers and an anti-submarine warfare aircraft to the other side of the island. The message: we don’t need to invade — we can isolate you, and nobody’s coming to help.
Taiwan is stuck: it looks reckless if it resists, defenceless if it doesn’t. Xi Jinping shows the Chinese people that he’s serious about regaining the rebel province. He also humiliates the United States, which has given an ambiguous (read: empty) security guarantee to the offshore Chinese democracy.
The bill for that, and for abundant timidity and complacency elsewhere, is coming due now. Western countries should have recognised Taiwan as an independent country straight after Tiananmen Square in 1989, thus busting the “one-China” nonsense that underpins the mainland’s territorial claim.
It’s not altogether too late: some Western countries are now tiptoeing towards stronger ties with Taipei. But it won’t deter Xi Jinping if he is set on a speedy showdown.
Three points are not fully understood:
China’s in full snarl mode now. Crushing Hong Kong showed it works. Soft power isn’t about being nice: it exploits anti-Americanism, apathy, fear and greed.
The nascent Western coalition is still fragile. New Zealand’s splintering away. Some countries care chiefly about human rights; others only about security. No Latin American or African countries are interested.
Taiwan (as I’ve written before) is not ready for prime time. Its diplomacy is leaden, politics polarised and institutions penetrated. We can’t want to defend Taiwan more than it wants to defend itself.
War in Ukraine is even closer. Russia is massing troops in the east and issuing sulphurous threats. The goal may be to create a land link with Crimea, easing the acute water shortage on the Russian-occupied peninsular.
Ukraine can’t defeat the Russians alone, and NATO is not going to help, let alone the useless EU (ducking yet another security crisis in its neighbourhood).
That leaves the US. Can the Biden administration confront Russia and China at the same time? Overstretch risks humiliation. Inaction ensures it. Like I said, I don’t think the timing of these crises is coincidental.
What I’ve been writing:
My weekly CEPA column on how China wins in Europe (because we let it).
The weekly China Influence Monitor — a must-read for anyone interested in the party-state’s foreign footprint. The Winter Olympics are turning into a nightmare for Western companies. Appease the party-state and you get roasted by activists abroad. Resist, and you get hounded out of China.
This CEPA report on Chinese and Russian information operations during the pandemic. No sign of strategic collusion, but plenty of overlap.
What I’ve been reading:
Stalin’s War by Sean McMeekin. Provocative take on WW2 depicting the Soviet dictator as instigator and beneficiary. Marred by loose writing in places.
Also: this lengthy report on military mobility (and the lack of it) by my friend and colleague Lt-Gen (US Army, retd) Ben Hodges. If we can’t move troops and equipment around Europe, we can’t defend it.
Happy Easter, if you’re celebrating it. I’ll be back in your inboxes next week.
Best regards, Edward
PS tips, gossip, feedback are welcome. I’m on +44 7770 380 791 (WhatsApp, Signal preferred)