Hello and welcome to this week’s Active Measures newsletter, giving you my inside take on Russia, China and the West’s fightback (or lack of it). Normally the main edition is subscribers-only, but this week I’m sending the same bulletin to everyone.
If you like it, switch to the paid subscription here.
The Kremlin-brokered ceasefire in the Caucasus leaves Armenia humiliated and Azerbaijan triumphant (read more about it from the great Tom de Waal). Turkey will be jubilant if it gains the promised corridor across Armenian territory.
But the big picture is that Russia has consolidated its role as the regional powerbroker, and underlined the West’s impotence. Why would anyone in the region factor EU or US diplomatic and security support (or pressure) into their calculations?
The big danger now is a further Russian squeeze on the wobbly pro-Western bastion of Georgia. Demonstrative flights over Georgian airspace (probably carrying peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabagh) are an ominous sign. Next up: road convoys through the Roki tunnel.
Georgia is in no state to complain following a messy, murky election that saw the shambolic, ill-led pro-Western opposition trounced by the ruling party machine. US secretary of state Mike Pompeo is making a hurried trip to Tbilisi.
Irony alert: Doubtless the American visitor will piously urge all sides to respect the election result.
Takeaway: when Joe Biden was vice-president, the West mattered in the Caucasus, in energy, soft-power, transit and regional security. The last four years have marked a catastrophic retreat. That’s a lot of ground to make up.
Taiwan is a neuralgic issue for the Chinese Communist Party. That’s potentially useful — even a symbolic boost in ties with the island democracy arouses fury in Beijing, consuming political energy and highlighting the regime’s unpleasant attempt to control what other countries say and do.
Even better, the threats are usually empty. A Czech delegation visited Taipei in August, prompting splenetic warnings but no serious sanctions. Now the new Lithuanian government wants to help Taiwan fight for freedom.
The problem, increasingly, is that Taiwan is not ready for primetime.
The bureaucratic, deferential culture of the past KMT era is still deeply embedded. So are the cautious habits instilled in the days when Western countries saw the offshore Chinese republic as an embarrassment. Few Taiwanese diplomats have the language skill and sizzle of the envoys in Berlin and Washington DC.
The handful of seasoned, media-savvy campaigners outside government are overstretched.
Result: opportunities missed, vulnerabilities gaping.
Solution: intensive political-warfare training for hundreds of officials, thinktankers and activists. Start now.
A lightly sourced story claiming that Vladimir Putin has Parkinson’s disease and will retire in January caught much attention. I doubt the specifics are true, but the broader issue is important.
Succession is a headache in Russia since the days of the Romanovs. Putin kept his bargain with the Yeltsin family, keeping them out of jail in return for handing over power. But that was an exception. Who can Putin trust to keep him safe?
The Russian system is inherently brittle. The Putin regime survives because his personal popularity outweighs the disgust Russians feel about corruption and incompetence. It also gives him the clout he needs to broker deals between the feuding Kremlin plans.
But if Putin’s popularity dips (as it has done recently) he instantly becomes vulnerable.
My prediction: Putin’s departure from power will be messy and abrupt.
Few doubt Joe Biden’s knowledge and experience when it comes to European security. But Europeans should refresh their memories before getting their hopes up.
In July 2009, which many now would regard as a lost golden age, I helped draft this open letter from bigwigs in central and eastern Europe, lamenting the decline in once-fervent Atlanticist sentiment. A couple of months later I wrote this Economist piece, End of an affair, outlining the arguments (and, to be fair, lambasting the Europeans for neediness and self-centredness).
The botched “reset” with Russia, the “pivot to Asia” and abundant leaks and snubs that embarrassed allies all contributed to the woes, along with a chilly attitude among many at the top that alliances were inherently passé.
Some unloved names from that era are in contention for top jobs in the Biden administration. Maybe they’ve learned from their mistakes.
What I’ve been writing: Blunt Chinese economic warfare by buying Australian wine (in the Times, paywalled). And for CEPA, more thoughts on Biden.
Don’t forget, you can sign up to the subscribers-only version of the newsletter for just $9 a month or $ 90 for a year. That gives you access to the archive, including my thoughts on what really led to the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal.
I’ll be back in your inboxes next week,
Best regards
Edward
PS — tips, thoughts and feedback welcome. I’m on +447770380791 (WhatsApp, Signal preferred). And for daily, sometimes hourly, updates, you can follow me on Twitter @edwardlucas