Welcome to another edition of Active Measures. You are welcome to forward this to trusted friends but please don’t post the content on social media.
I’ve been in DC, making suggestions to decision-makers:
Integrate the intelligence, visa, regulatory and criminal-justice capabilities of Western countries to deter enablers — the bankers, lawyers, accountants, fixers and grifters who help kleptocrats survive at home, and all too often to influence our countries. Here’s how:
— Find out what they do (by bugging them and using informers);
— Stoke worry that working for dodgy clients risks a visa ban;
— Make professional-standards bodies punish breaches of norms and rules; and — Create uncertainty about subpoenas, extradition and prosecution.
Since I first floated this idea on Twitter a few months ago, and wrote about it in the Times, the feedback has been terrific. I hope the US and other governments will act.
Urging serious political warfare tactics in support of, and by, Taiwan. The hierarchical, deferential, passive bureaucratic culture in the Chinese island democracy is a serious handicap.
Ukraine’s anti-imperialist cause should be hugely popular in countries of Africa, Latin America and Asia that experienced Western colonialism. Oddly, it isn’t. The EU should help Ukraine get its message across — the upcoming Swedish presidency should make this a priority.
We need a long-term Russia strategy. It needs to deal with eventualities including:
A grindingly slow end to the Putin era, or his rapid departure.
A seemingly smooth transfer of power, or a disorderly one.
A desire (however superficial) for rapprochement with the West, or intensified enmity.
Centrifugal forces tearing Russia apart, or an attempt to re-establish central control by force.
The big questions right now are a) how quickly, and how much, Ukraine can win; and b) how fragile Putin’s hold on power is, and how it is affected by Russia’s military setbacks. My answers are “more than you think” and “a lot”. Here’s why.