Welcome to this week’s Active Measures.
I’m giving evidence to a hearing of the US Congress next week, on the topical subject of Russia and kleptocracy.
I’ve been warning since the early 1990s that the Kremlin weaponises trade, finance, business and organised crime to undermine its neighbours and distort our decision-making. Finally people are listening — there are lots of new laws and other international efforts. But they don’t yet bite properly. And setbacks abound.
Removing sanctions from Matthias Warnig (ex-Stasi officer and Putin chum) and the Nord Stream AG which he runs is this administration’s first big foreign policy mistake.
Why it matters: Russian pipelines don’t just pump gas. They export corruption. This one exemplifies the Kremlin’s grip on Germany. See “Schroederisation”) Exporting gas under the Baltic Sea hurts Ukraine (which loses transit revenues) and entrenches Germany’s dependence on Russian energy.
Why it happened: the Biden administration is eager to repair relations with Germany, badly strained during the Trump years. Many Germans think that the US sanctions on Nord Stream are self-interested – aiming to boost sales of American LNG. So the thinking in DC was was that a mild relaxation of sanctions would pave the way for closer cooperation on other things that matter more, chiefly China.
Why it went wrong: The flipflop makes Biden look indecisive. Germany doesn’t seem particularly grateful. Ukraine and Poland are furious. So too are lawmakers in DC (and many other foreign policy wonks).
What should have happened: The pipeline is 95% complete, so it would have made sense to bargain over its completion: getting the Germans to do some things on European security that would please their eastern neighbours.
What it shows: that the Biden administration, despite having a stellar team of Russia hawks (Molly Montgomery, Julie Smith, Toria Nuland) is distracted and dithery at the top.
Also: The brutal truth is that Trump was broadly right on Germany, however badly he got his message across. Decision-makers in Berlin are profoundly irresponsible on both Russia and China (for an insight into the way they think and why, read this brilliant piece by Ulrike Franke).
I’m busy writing my testimony, so that’s it for now. Have a good weekend. I’ll be back in your inboxes next week.
Best regards, Edward
PS if you have suggestions for points I should make to the US lawmakers, let me know — I’m on Signal +447770 380 791