Welcome to Active Measures, particularly if you are a new reader. You join 1,000-odd other subscribers. My weekly insider’s take is based on 40-odd years of dealing with the region we used to call “eastern Europe” (for why we shouldn’t use this term, see my Tedx talk).
This week’s issue also goes out to the 700-plus people who used to receive my Yahoogroups mailing, which I started from Moscow in 2000. Nice to be in touch. Let me know what you think — I’m on +447770380791 (WhatsApp, Signal or plain SMS).
The best news this week is the new Lithuanian government. A clean election, a sensible outcome — and a sharp contrast to some other countries. Heavyweight defence and foreign affairs ministers replaced by experienced and promising newcomers. With continuing lacklustre leadership in Latvia and Estonia, this will cement Lithuania’s position as the most prominent Baltic state. Watch out for the brainy, hawkish new prime minister, 46-year-old Ingrida Šimonytė (pronounced Shee-mon-EE-teh), as she starts making foreign trips.
Frantic efforts are under way by the Munich Security Conference to capitalise on Joe Biden’s election. The ideal would be to bring the avowedly Atlanticist US president to the usual venue — the Bayerischer Hof hotel in the Bavarian capital — in February, for a slimmed down version of the annual securocrats’ shindig. But an alternative idea is to hold the MSC in Washington DC. Either way, the aim is to have Biden outline his manifesto for rebooting the Atlantic alliance. Likely key points:
Help us on China
Pay more for your defence
Sort out neighbourhood problems yourself.
Takeway: Let’s hope France and Germany have stopped squabbling by then.
Belarus’s agonies continue. Repression increases. Protests dwindle. The Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is visiting Minsk right now, highlighting the uncomfortable fact that Russia has the diplomatic initiative. What will it do? Send some tough messages to Aliaksandr Lukashenka — and plot his removal.
Keep an eye on Romania, where parliamentary elections on December 6th could give a much-needed majority to the prime minister Ludovic Orban (not to be confused with Hungary’s Victor Orbán). Early parliamentary elections are also likely in Moldova where the newly elected president Maia Sandu needs to keep up the momentum of her anti-corruption campaign. This interesting Jamestown piece looks at the details of her victory, and the characteristically cack-handed way that Russia undermined the pro-Kremlin incumbent Igor Dodon, just as his re-election campaign started. Hint: it involves a shipment of plums.
Takeaway: If hard-pressed Moldovans can chuck out cronies and demagogues, so can other countries.
What got me cross: My friend Gideon Rachman wrote eloquently in the FT about “corruption is rotting the periphery of Europe’. He rightly highlighted scandals in Malta, Slovakia and elsewhere. But surely the really shocking corruption is in Western financial centres, like London? It’s the bankers, lawyers and accountants in the supposedly respectable “old West” who turbocharge the sleaze elsewhere. Another friend, Oliver Bullough, has a must-read weekly newsletter called Oligarchy — take a look.
What I’ve been reading: Anna Ohanyan’s reflective piece for Carnegie about the aftermath of the Armenian-Azerbaijan war.
What I’ve been listening to: This thought-provoking radio programme by BBC journalist Alina Isachenka looks at the way support for the Orthodox Church in Belarus is ebbing. The Roman Catholic Church, mired in controversy in next-door Poland, is filling the gap.
What I’ve been writing 1): reflections for the Times on Britain’s defence-spending splurge. Money’s still tight and the hard choices lie ahead. Europeans will be expected to do more, especially in land warfare.
What I’ve been writing 2): My weekly column for CEPA on how Russia squandered its soft-power advantages after 1991. It could have been a cultural and spiritual superpower. Now it’s neither.
What I’ve been writing 3): My weekly newsletter on Chinese influence ops. Take a look
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I’ll be back in your inboxes next week. If you celebrate Thanksgiving, my best wishes to you.
Best regards
Edward
PS Remember — comments and feedback welcome +447770380791